Iran’s New Supreme Leader Signals Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed

The Thesis Journal

Adrian Schimpf • March 12th, 2026

Hormuz update

Iran’s New Supreme Leader Signals Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed

Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising concerns across global energy markets.

In his first public comments since succeeding his assassinated father, Ali Khamenei, the 56 year old cleric indicated Iran would continue using control of the strategic waterway as leverage in its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.

“The lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used,” Khamenei said in a written statement broadcast by Iranian state television.

A Critical Global Energy Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes in the global energy system.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply typically passes through the narrow waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to international markets.

Since the conflict began on February 28, tanker traffic through the strait has been severely disrupted following strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets.

Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks across the region, hitting locations in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while also threatening vessels operating near the strait.

Energy markets have reacted quickly to the disruption.

As of Thursday afternoon in London, Brent crude was trading just below $100 per barrel, reflecting growing concerns about supply shortages and escalating geopolitical risk.

Iran Signals Potential Expansion of the Conflict

Khamenei’s remarks also suggested that Iran may widen the scope of the conflict if fighting continues.

According to the statement, Iranian leadership has studied the possibility of opening additional fronts against adversaries in areas where they are “highly vulnerable.”

The message reflects a more confrontational stance from the new leadership and signals that Iran may continue to leverage both military pressure and energy markets as tools in the broader conflict.

Diplomatic Efforts Struggle to Reopen the Strait

Behind the scenes, several countries are attempting to broker negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing tensions.

Diplomatic mediation efforts are currently being led by Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Turkey, with support from European governments.

However, officials familiar with the talks say progress has been limited.

Qatar, which had previously been involved in the diplomatic process, has stepped back from negotiations after suffering repeated attacks from Iranian forces.

Economic Risks Extend Beyond Energy Markets

The closure of the strait is already reverberating through global financial markets.

Higher energy prices have begun pushing up inflation expectations, raising concerns among investors that central banks could be forced to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Bond markets have also reacted to the uncertainty, as traders reassess the potential economic consequences of a prolonged disruption in global energy supply.

Trump Prioritizes Security Over Oil Prices

The escalating crisis has placed pressure on the United States to reopen the critical shipping route.

However, President Donald Trump has suggested that geopolitical priorities outweigh the immediate impact on energy markets.

Speaking on social media shortly before Khamenei’s statement, Trump said preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains the administration’s top priority.

“The United States is the largest oil producer in the world,” Trump wrote. “When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”

Overall

The appointment of Iran’s new supreme leader appears unlikely to ease tensions in the Middle East.

By signaling that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, Tehran is continuing to use one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints as leverage in the ongoing conflict.

As long as the waterway remains disrupted, global energy markets, shipping routes, and financial markets are likely to remain highly volatile.

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The Thesis Journal

Iran’s New Supreme Leader Signals Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed

Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, signaled that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising concerns across global energy markets.

In his first public comments since succeeding his assassinated father, Ali Khamenei, the 56 year old cleric indicated Iran would continue using control of the strategic waterway as leverage in its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.

“The lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used,” Khamenei said in a written statement broadcast by Iranian state television.

A Critical Global Energy Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important shipping routes in the global energy system.

Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply typically passes through the narrow waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf to international markets.

Since the conflict began on February 28, tanker traffic through the strait has been severely disrupted following strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets.

Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks across the region, hitting locations in Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while also threatening vessels operating near the strait.

Energy markets have reacted quickly to the disruption.

As of Thursday afternoon in London, Brent crude was trading just below $100 per barrel, reflecting growing concerns about supply shortages and escalating geopolitical risk.

Iran Signals Potential Expansion of the Conflict

Khamenei’s remarks also suggested that Iran may widen the scope of the conflict if fighting continues.

According to the statement, Iranian leadership has studied the possibility of opening additional fronts against adversaries in areas where they are “highly vulnerable.”

The message reflects a more confrontational stance from the new leadership and signals that Iran may continue to leverage both military pressure and energy markets as tools in the broader conflict.

Diplomatic Efforts Struggle to Reopen the Strait

Behind the scenes, several countries are attempting to broker negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reducing tensions.

Diplomatic mediation efforts are currently being led by Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Turkey, with support from European governments.

However, officials familiar with the talks say progress has been limited.

Qatar, which had previously been involved in the diplomatic process, has stepped back from negotiations after suffering repeated attacks from Iranian forces.

Economic Risks Extend Beyond Energy Markets

The closure of the strait is already reverberating through global financial markets.

Higher energy prices have begun pushing up inflation expectations, raising concerns among investors that central banks could be forced to keep interest rates elevated for longer.

Bond markets have also reacted to the uncertainty, as traders reassess the potential economic consequences of a prolonged disruption in global energy supply.

Trump Prioritizes Security Over Oil Prices

The escalating crisis has placed pressure on the United States to reopen the critical shipping route.

However, President Donald Trump has suggested that geopolitical priorities outweigh the immediate impact on energy markets.

Speaking on social media shortly before Khamenei’s statement, Trump said preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains the administration’s top priority.

“The United States is the largest oil producer in the world,” Trump wrote. “When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”

Overall

The appointment of Iran’s new supreme leader appears unlikely to ease tensions in the Middle East.

By signaling that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, Tehran is continuing to use one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints as leverage in the ongoing conflict.

As long as the waterway remains disrupted, global energy markets, shipping routes, and financial markets are likely to remain highly volatile.

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